NOAA winter outlook: very strong El Niño favors mild North, wetter South

A very strong El Niño is expected to shape the coming winter across the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday in its outlook for December 2026 through February 2027.

NOAA said the pattern is likely to push the jet stream south and east, favoring stormier weather across the southern states.

What the outlook favors

• Warmer than average: the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska
• Wetter than average: the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast
• Drier than average: parts of the Great Lakes, the northern Mountain West, much of Alaska and Hawaii
• Drought relief: expected by the end of January in the Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast

ABC News reported that much of the Northeast falls in the area favored for above-normal temperatures. NOAA's seasonal outlooks do not forecast snowfall, ABC noted, and the agency stresses that its maps show probabilities rather than certainties.

A potentially historic event

The Weather Channel reported that waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific ran about 2.3 degrees Celsius above average last week. Citing NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, it said there is an 83% chance of a historic event that would surpass previous El Niños dating to 1950.

The Weather Channel also noted that the Atlantic has produced just one hurricane this season, Isaias, which formed on Oct. 7, the latest first hurricane of the satellite era.

NOAA said its next monthly update to the outlook is scheduled for Nov. 19.