Texas Senate race tied at 49% in new poll as early turnout surges

A new Fox News poll finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters in the race for Texas's open U.S. Senate seat, with Election Day 12 days away.

The survey of 1,398 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points, according to Fox News. The same voters said they prefer Republican control of the Senate, 51% to 47%. A Fox News poll taken in late September had Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%.

Endorsements cross party lines

Neil Bush, a brother of former President George W. Bush, announced his support for Talarico in a social media post on Tuesday, Al Jazeera reported. He cited concerns about Paxton's judgment and conduct, including the attorney general's challenge to 2020 presidential election results in other states. Barbara Bush, the former president's daughter, gave $2,500 to Lone Star Rising PAC, a group backing Talarico, according to Fox News.

On the other side, Elon Musk urged Texans on X to vote for Paxton, and the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has spent $46 million supporting him, Fox News reported. Talarico has accused Musk of trying to buy the seat.

Paxton ousted Sen. John Cornyn in a May 26 primary runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed him. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988, Al Jazeera noted.

Turnout is running hot

Early voting in Texas is up 74% over the same point in 2022, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. In Travis County, home to Austin, nearly 41,000 people voted on the first day, Oct. 19, a first-day record for any midterm this century, KUT reported, citing Texas Secretary of State data.